When I wrote the first article on the subjet of demonetization immediately after the announcement, I was ridiculed for exaggerating. There was almost nothing about the event in the international press for many weeks thereafter. Very slowly it did get around to informing readers that all was not right with India. Bloomberg, Forbes, et al. eventually came out with scathing articles.
After two months, the IMF reduced its GDP growth forecast for India, from 7.6% to 6.6%. I disagree with this figure. Everywhere I look, I find the economy suffering and/or stagnating: businesses failing, people going bankrupt, and a large section of society going into economic seizure. From what I have seen, growth is probably negative. I expect GDP to fall. The IMF will very likely have to revisit its numbers.
India’s mainstream press has been mostly silent — most are puppets of Modi these days. There has been virtually no reporting from the rural and tribal areas, where 75% of India’s citizens live. There is hardly any information on what is happening in smaller towns.
I have written eight updates, while traveling in India and investigating the situation. Based on all I have seen and discussed, the situation is a lot grimmer than mainstream media reports suggest.